---
title: What Banks Should Know About Tariffs and the Economy in 2025
description: Explore Jill Cetina's must-read insights on economic risks for banks in 2025. Learn how to prepare with actionable resources.
---

[Intel Blog ](https://intel.invictusgrp.com)

# [What Banks Should Know About Tariffs and the Economy in 2025](https://intel.invictusgrp.com/what-banks-should-know-about-tariffs-and-the-economy-in-2025)

 Written by [Adam Mustafa](https://intel.invictusgrp.com/author/adam-mustafa) | Apr 30, 2025 3:34:20 PM

*Why Jill Cetina’s latest presentation is a must-read for bankers*

Amid rising economic uncertainty and market volatility, Jill Cetina—banking expert, economist, and faculty member of the Certificate of Bank Treasury Risk Management (BTRM)—delivered a powerful webinar on April 15th addressing how U.S. trade and fiscal policy may impact banks in 2025.

From the growing permanence of tariffs as a revenue source to rising recession and stagflation risks, Cetina provides a comprehensive breakdown of what banks may need to prepare for—especially in slides 21 through 23.

**Key Takeaways from the Deck**

- Why official sector interventions may no longer work as expected
- The importance of liquidity, stress testing, and understanding capital buffers
- How loan pricing, not volume, becomes critical
- The growing need for customized stress testing, including a 6% 10-year Treasury yield
- Strategic insights on asset selection and CECL scenario adjustments

This presentation reinforces the urgency for banks to review their capital plans and interest rate risk sensitivity, and to prepare for a new reality where regulation may not equal risk mitigation.

*Note: Invictus does not have any contractual relationship with Ms. Cetina or BTRM. Our promotion of her presentation is strictly based upon its immense educational value for financial institutions.*

Resources to Help you Prepare: 

[Download full slide deck from BTRM webinar](https://info.invictusgrp.com/2025-tariffs-and-the-economy)

[**Download the CRE Concentration Risk Management Planand learn how to: **](https://link.edgepilot.com/s/316d38eb/mReYFI4pp0ykEZedMVdMYA?u=https://info.invictusgrp.com/cre-concentration-management-plan-download)

- Unlock hidden lending capacity using real capital stress testing 
- Align growth with capital strength-not arbitrary limits
- Proactively address regulatory concerns while maximizing profitability
- Benchmark your CRE exposure against peer banks and national trends

[Download the Sample Capital Plan and learn how to:](https://info.invictusgrp.com/sample-capital-plan-download)

- Understand key capital planning components
- Define risk limits that align with your growth strategy
- Satisfy regulatory expectations while maximizing lending potential

[Download the Tariff &  Trade War Recession Scenario which emphasizes:](https://info.invictusgrp.com/tariff-and-trade-war-recession-scenario-download)<https://info.invictusgrp.com/tariff-and-trade-war-recession-scenario-download>

- Quarterly movements in critical macroeconomic factors (such as GDP, Unemployment, and Interest Rates)
- The limitations of monetary policy which may limit the effectiveness of any Federal Reserve response.

- The potential impact of tariffs on specific industries.
- Possible ways to modify your existing stress testing framework to consider critical differences between this scenario and more traditional recessions.

 

Other Resources: 

Watch our latest video: [Video Library](https://www.invictusgrp.com/webinars-and-videos)  
Read our latest insights : [Intel Blog](https://intel.invictusgrp.com/)  
Follow us on LinkedIn for expert analysis & industry updates: [LinkedIn](https://www.linkedin.com/in/adammustafa/)

 

 

[View full post](https://intel.invictusgrp.com/what-banks-should-know-about-tariffs-and-the-economy-in-2025)

```json
{
  "@context" : "http://schema.org",
  "@type" : "BlogPosting",
  "author" : {
    "@type" : "Person",
    "name" : "Adam Mustafa"
  },
  "dateModified" : "2025-05-12T16:25:06.772Z",
  "datePublished" : "2025-04-30T15:34:20Z",
  "headline" : "What Banks Should Know About Tariffs and the Economy in 2025",
  "image" : {
    "@type" : "ImageObject",
    "height" : 4134,
    "url" : "https://www.invictusgrp.com/hubfs/shutterstock_2549677961-1.jpg",
    "width" : 8268
  },
  "mainEntityOfPage" : "https://intel.invictusgrp.com/what-banks-should-know-about-tariffs-and-the-economy-in-2025",
  "publisher" : {
    "@type" : "Organization",
    "logo" : {
      "@type" : "ImageObject",
      "height" : 60,
      "url" : "/hs/hsstatic/content_shared_assets/static-1.4092/img/default-amp-logo.png",
      "width" : 60
    },
    "name" : "Intel Blog"
  }
}
```