Invictus Tariff and Trade War Recession Scenario
The Invictus Tariff and Trade War Recession 2.0 scenario (updated August 19, 2025) is intended to reflect (but not predict) a tail-risk outcome for the U.S. economy, driven by...
As your bank closes its books for the year, here are examples of analyses you can perform
You do NOT need to download anything, either. You can access the tool right here:
STEP 1 Select a subject bank. This will likely be your bank, but you can choose to look at the data on any basis you’d like.
STEP 2 Select the comparison state. You can pick multiple states, or just one. Please note that if you would like to see your bank show up on the scatter chart, you must select your state.
STEP3 Filter for CECL adopters (or not… or both). You can utilize this filter to try and understand how the onset of CECL has affected reserve rates for banks in your region.
STEP 4 The data goes back to 2019Q4 – which was the last quarter before the ‘noise’ from both COVID-19 and CECL adoption. Change this filter actively to see how bank’s reserves have changed through time – particularly because of COVID-19 and CECL adoption.
STEP 5 You can use this filter to narrow or customize your own peer group. The banks you will be able to choose from in this list will be only those institutions from the state that you’ve selected in Step 2.
CECL Trends, CECL, community bank regulations, community banks, CECL Modeling, acl challenges, bank regulatory compliance, advanced cecl
Now that most community banks have eight to ten quarters of CECL experience under their belts, many are still grappling with foundational issues such as overreliance on qualitative factors, lack of responsiveness to risk rating...
capital planning, community bank regulations, Deregulation, bank strategy, community banks, regulatory capital, bank growth strategy, cre risk
Author : Adam Mustafa, CEO, Invictus Analytics
Community banks now have the clearest path in nearly two decades to reshape their regulatory capital requirements—and they shouldn't miss it. While most recent efforts to ease...