Invictus Tariff and Trade War Recession Scenario
The Invictus Tariff and Trade War Recession 2.0 scenario (updated August 19, 2025) is intended to reflect (but not predict) a tail-risk outcome for the U.S. economy, driven by...
Why Jill Cetina’s latest presentation is a must-read for bankers
Amid rising economic uncertainty and market volatility, Jill Cetina—banking expert, economist, and faculty member of the Certificate of Bank Treasury Risk Management (BTRM)—delivered a powerful webinar on April 15th addressing how U.S. trade and fiscal policy may impact banks in 2025.
From the growing permanence of tariffs as a revenue source to rising recession and stagflation risks, Cetina provides a comprehensive breakdown of what banks may need to prepare for—especially in slides 21 through 23.
Key Takeaways from the Deck
- Why official sector interventions may no longer work as expected
- The importance of liquidity, stress testing, and understanding capital buffers
- How loan pricing, not volume, becomes critical
- The growing need for customized stress testing, including a 6% 10-year Treasury yield
- Strategic insights on asset selection and CECL scenario adjustments
This presentation reinforces the urgency for banks to review their capital plans and interest rate risk sensitivity, and to prepare for a new reality where regulation may not equal risk mitigation.
Note: Invictus does not have any contractual relationship with Ms. Cetina or BTRM. Our promotion of her presentation is strictly based upon its immense educational value for financial institutions.
Resources to Help you Prepare:
Download full slide deck from BTRM webinar
Download the CRE Concentration Risk Management Planand learn how to:
- Unlock hidden lending capacity using real capital stress testing
- Align growth with capital strength-not arbitrary limits
- Proactively address regulatory concerns while maximizing profitability
- Benchmark your CRE exposure against peer banks and national trends
Download the Sample Capital Plan and learn how to:
- Understand key capital planning components
- Define risk limits that align with your growth strategy
- Satisfy regulatory expectations while maximizing lending potential
Download the Tariff & Trade War Recession Scenario which emphasizes:
- Quarterly movements in critical macroeconomic factors (such as GDP, Unemployment, and Interest Rates)
- The limitations of monetary policy which may limit the effectiveness of any Federal Reserve response.
- The potential impact of tariffs on specific industries.
- Possible ways to modify your existing stress testing framework to consider critical differences between this scenario and more traditional recessions.
Other Resources:
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Read our latest insights : Intel Blog
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