Invictus Tariff and Trade War Recession Scenario
The Invictus Tariff and Trade War Recession 2.0 scenario (updated August 19, 2025) is intended to reflect (but not predict) a tail-risk outcome for the U.S. economy, driven by...
Grossly Underdiscussed CECL Challenges
Now that most community banks have eight to ten quarters of CECL experience under their belts, many are still grappling with foundational issues such as overreliance on qualitative factors, lack of responsiveness to risk rating...
How Capital Requirements are Being Scaled Back for Community Banks Too
Author : Adam Mustafa, CEO, Invictus Analytics
Community banks now have the clearest path in nearly two decades to reshape their regulatory capital requirements—and they shouldn't miss it. While most recent efforts to ease...
Why Banks Should Consider Planning for a Trade War Recession Now
While the banking industry has weathered its share of economic challenges in recent years, the next major threat may be quietly building and it’s not what most banks are stress testing for.
In his recent American Banker op-ed,...
What Banks Should Know About Tariffs and the Economy in 2025
Why Jill Cetina’s latest presentation is a must-read for bankers
Amid rising economic uncertainty and market volatility, Jill Cetina—banking expert, economist, and faculty member of the Certificate of Bank Treasury Risk...
American Banker Quotes Invictus CEO on Top CRE Risk Concerns
The commercial real estate (CRE) sector continues to present significant challenges for banks, especially as economic uncertainties mount.A recent article by American Banker, titled Three Key Factors as Banks Manage CRE Risk in...
Unlock Growth Potential with Smarter CRE Concentration Management
Commercial Real Estate (CRE) lending can be a powerful growth engine for banks—but only when managed strategically. Many banks limit their expansion due to outdated, one-size-fits-all concentration policies that don’t account for...
Invictus Releases a Tariff and Trade War Stress Testing Scenario for Banks
Invictus Tariff and Trade War Recession Scenario
The Invictus Tariff and Trade War Recession 2.0 scenario is intended to reflect (but not predict) a tail-risk outcome for the U.S. economy, driven by fiscal policies regarding...
Why the Worst Loans Are Made in the Best Times: Lessons from Banking History
Author: Adam Mustafa, President
One of the most critical principles in banking is that the worst loans are often made in the best of times. This paradox underscores how economic conditions at the time of a loan's origination can...